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What We Do
What We Do
Recent research in cognitive and behavioral sciences is increasingly illuminating the basic mechanisms of human reasoning and cognition, as well as their limitations and systematic deviations from normative theories of rational inference and decision-making. It also raises interesting questions concerning the foundations and methods of different scientific disciplines, and the analysis of scientific reasoning in general.
This research line puts together theoretical and formal models of inference and decision-making with empirical approaches to the study of human reasoning and cognition. The aim is twofold: to better understand, and possibly improve, how people reason and make choices in different contexts, both in ordinary life and in science; and to clarify and strengthen the methodology and foundations of cognitive, behavioral, and social sciences.
Topics we work, or plan to work, on include:
Formal epistemology and philosophy of science:
Bayesian confirmation theory, truthlikeness theory, cognitive decision theory.
Philosophy of cognitive, behavioral, and social sciences, including neuroscience, (behavioral) economics, medicine, forensic science, statistics, machine learning, history, textual criticism, etc.
Philosophical issues in the foundations, epistemology, and the methodology of science: e.g., reverse inference, abduction, analogy, simplicity, replicability, explainability, etc.
Models of reasoning, inference and decision-making:
Heuristics and biases, ecological rationality, nudge theory.
Experts, science, and society: boosting scientific literacy, managing false and misleading information, assessing expert advice
Legal epistemology and cognitive biases in legal reasoning
ONGOING PROJECTS
Reasoning with hypotheses: Integrating logical, probabilistic, and experimental perspectives (PRIN project, funded by MUR 2024-2025)
Boosting intellectual humility to improve science communication in healthcare (funded by the John Templeton Foundation, 2023-2026)
NUTS (Nudge Unit Toscana per la Salute), joint IMT - ARS Toscana initiative
PAST PROJECTS
SpinGeVacS: Spinta gentile, vaccinazione anti-COVID-19 e salute pubblica (funded by Regione Toscana, 2021-2024)
Understanding public data: experts, decisions, epistemic values (PRO3 project, funded by MUR 2021-2023)
From Models to Decisions (PRIN project, funded by MUR 2024-2025)
Who We Are
Who We Are
FEDERICA RUZZANTE
PhD Student
MATTEO PIRISI
PhD Student
ALICE ANDREA CHINAIA
PhD Student
RUGGERO RONI
PhD Student
PIERO AVITABILE
PhD Student
TOBIA FOGARIN
PhD Student
Guest members
DARIO MENICAGLI
PhD
GIOVANNA MANCINI
PhD student
Past members
What We Publish
What We Publish
I want to be safe: understanding the main drivers behind vaccination choice throughout the pandemic
Marco Marini, Alessandro Demichelis, Dario Menicagli, Giovanna Mancini, Folco Panizza, Ennio Bilancini & Gustavo CevolaniBMC Public Health (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-18511-zOur study reveals a dynamic shift in vaccine efficacy and safety perceptions throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, potentially influencing vaccination compliance. Initially perceived as more effective than safe, this assessment reversed by the time of the third dose. Beliefs regarding safety, rather than efficacy, played a significant role in anticipating future vaccinations (e.g., the booster dose). Safety-focused messages positively affected vaccination intent, while efficacy-focused messages showed limited impact. We also observed a changing trend in reasons for vaccination, with a decline in infection-related reasons and an increase in social related ones. Furthermore, trust dynamics evolved differently for public authorities and the scientific community.
Abductive reasoning in cognitive neuroscience: weak and strong reverse inference
Calzavarini, F.; Cevolani, G. Synthese, 2022. DOI: 10.1007/s11229-022-03585-2Reverse inference is a crucial inferential strategy used in cognitive neuroscience to derive conclusions about the engagement of cognitive processes from patterns of brain activation. While widely employed in experimental studies, it is now viewed with increasing scepticism within the neuroscience community. One problem with reverse inference is that it is logically invalid, being an instance of abduction in Peirce’s sense. In this paper, we offer the first systematic analysis of reverse inference as a form of abductive reasoning and highlight some relevant implications for the current debate. We start by formalising an important distinction that has been entirely neglected in the literature, namely the distinction between weak (strategic) and strong (justificatory) reverse inference. Then, we rely on case studies from recent neuroscientific research to systematically discuss the role and limits of both strong and weak reverse inference; in particular, we offer the first exploration of weak reverse inference as a discovery strategy within cognitive neuroscience.
Lateral reading and monetary incentives to spot disinformation about science
Folco Panizza, Piero Ronzani, Carlo Martini, Simone Mattavelli, Tiffany Morisseau & Matteo MotterliniScientific Reports, 2022. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-09168-yDisinformation about science can impose enormous economic and public health burdens. A recentlyproposed strategy to help online users recognise false content is to follow the techniques ofprofessional fact checkers, such as looking for information on other websites (lateral reading) andlooking beyond the first results suggested by search engines (click restraint). In two preregisteredonline experiments (N = 5387), we simulated a social media environment and tested twointerventions, one in the form of a pop-up meant to advise participants to follow such techniques,the other based on monetary incentives. We measured participants’ ability to identify whetherinformation was scientifically valid or invalid. Analysis of participants’ search style reveals that bothmonetary incentives and pop-up increased the use of fact-checking strategies. Monetary incentiveswere overall effective in increasing accuracy, whereas the pop-up worked when the source ofinformation was unknown. Pop-up and incentives, when used together, produced a cumulative effecton accuracy. We suggest that monetary incentives enhance content relevance, and could be combinedwith fact-checking techniques to counteract disinformation.
Our Collaborations
Our Collaborations
Center for Logic, Language, and Cognition (LLC) - University of Turin
Center for Philosophy, Science, and Policy (CPSP) - Marche Polytechnic University
Game Science Research Center (Game.Sci Re.Center)
Vincenzo Crupi - University of Turin
Jan Sprenger - University of Turin
Carlo Martini - Università Vita Salute San Raffaele (Milan)
Katya Tentori - University of Trento
Stefania Pighin - University of Trento
Giovanni Valente - Politecnico di Milano
Mario Piazza - Scuola Normale Superiore Pisa
Andrea Sereni - IUSS Pavia
Andrea Iacona - University of Turin
Our Talks
Our Talks
G. Cevolani - Probability,confirmation, and truthlikeness in legal reasoning. Workshop on “New Trends in Logic and the Philosophy of Science”. Bologna, 2022
D. Coraci - Reverse Inference and Bayesian Confirmation in Cognitive Neuroscience; Symposium: From Brain Structures to Cognitive Functions: Philosophical and Neuroscientific Perspectives on Reverse Inference, European Society for Philophy and Physchology (ESPP) Conference 2021, Leipzig (Germany), 2021
A. Demichelis - Vaccine Hesitancy and Trust: Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic. SAS Conference 2021 - Trust in Science. High Performance Computing Center, Stuttgart. 2021
C. Colombo, M. Fanghella, F. Guala, C. Sinigaglia, The Role of Strategic Thinking and Motor Information in Interpersonal Coordination, SIPF, Conference, Palermo, 2021
F. Panizza, The contribution of fact-checking tips and monetary incentives to the recognition of online scientific disinformation. INEM 2021 Conference, Arizona State University, 2021.
E. Peruzzi, G. Cevolani - Defending De-Idealization in Economic Modeling: a Case Study. INEM 2021 Conference, Arizona State University, 2021.
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